While seemingly everybody and their mother has the Cubs winning the division this year (see here, and here and here), I’m trying to contain my enthusiasm.
Because I just can’t enter a season thinking we actually have a shot to win it all (the last time I did that was 2004 and we all know how that ended), I’ve spent the entire spring convincing myself that the Cubs are doomed in 2008.

Here are my “High Fidelity”-esque Top Five horrid fears about this year’s Cubs team.

1. Derrek Lee is old. He’s not the lockdown fielder he once was. He doesn’t run the bases as well as he used to. He looks like he’s in pain after every swing. He hit 16 homers after the All-Star break last year, but there’s no doubting his power has dropped since his wrist injury. I’m scared, folks. I’m scared he’s turning into Fred McGriff, circa 2002.

2. The bullpen is going to be worse. Sure, the ‘pen had its violent ups and downs last year, but overall, it was one of the best in baseball. Michael Wuertz and Carlos Marmol were among the best in the league in stranding inherited runners, Bob Howry was a serviceable if not dependable set-up man and God bless him, Ryan Dempster saved over 90 percent of his opportunities (28 of 31). Closers that save 90 percent of their chances don’t grow on trees. The bullpen is going to be worse this year not because the pitchers are any worse, but because it’s going to be hard for the pen to match last year’s accomplishments.

3. The Ryan Theriot-Mark DeRosa double-play combo is really, really bad. Cubs fans love these guys because “they hustle” and have good “work ethic” and “do all the little things” as if Derrek Lee loafs, Alfonso Soriano doesn’t try hard and Aramis Ramirez can’t play defense. All of the Cubs hustle (with the exception of Ramirez when his hamstring’s tender, which is always), all of them have good work ethic and, for the most part, they’re all willing to do the little things. Giving Theriot and DeRosa credit for these things is a polite way of pointing out that they’re not that talented. Most teams need to be strong up the middle to succeed. If the Cubs succeed, it will be despite the fact they were below average up the middle. (Don’t believe me? Look where Prospectus ranks them, or doesn’t rank them, in their player forecast manager. And that doesn’t take into consideration the below-average defense the duo will give.)

4. Jason Marquis. Are we really going through this again? Hasn’t Sean Marshall proven himself? Can’t we get like a can of tuna or something in a trade for Marquis?

5. It’s the Cubs. They’ll screw it up somehow.

I admit, these are all irrational, mostly baseless fears. I don’t care. I still fear the worst.
—

One year ago at this time, I was at the hospital pacing nervously back and forth during the birth of my son.

It wasn’t necessarily because of the delivery - this was kid No. 3; it was old hat - but because it was Opening Day and the stupid Cubs were getting blanked by Aaron Harang while Adam Dunn was literally taking laps around Carlos Zambrano after putting two bombs somewhere into Lake Erie.

Stupid Cubs.

They ended up sending us on wild, memorable ride last year which saw me not only give up on them, but actually strike from them for two weeks before they improbably charged to the divisional title and predictably floundered to the Baby Backs in the playoffs.

I entered last year with no expectations. This year, however, I actually enter more excited than I’ve been since 2004. Only what I was feeling entering the 2004 season wasn’t really excitement. I sort of felt entitled that year. We were going to win it that year because, dang it, we deserved to after Games 6 and 7. It was ours to lose. I remember saying “Prior-Wood-Zambrano-Clement-Maddux” to myself over and over again that whole year, convinced the pitching staff would eventually all come together and start mowing people down.

Sigh.

Perhaps it’s because of the horror show that was 2004 that I’m channeling my quasi-excitement into full-fledged fear. After all, excuse me for not being giddy about “Zambrano-Lilly-Marquis-Hill-Dempster.”

Sigh.

Let’s just not screw this up.

—

And now some links.

I have no inside sources and am basing this in no way on facts, but let’s get one thing straight here, people. The Bears are NOT trying to draft Darren McFadden. If Vegas had odds on things like “Bears trade their first-round draft pick for a lower first-round pick and another pick,” I’d place a bet on it. So why was Lovie having dinner with McFadden? I don’t have a clue. But there’s no way they’re drafting him in a million years. Brad Biggs of the Sun-Times thinks they have some serious interest in Felix Jones. That seems like a much more likely scenario.

Some idiot is claiming some pointless NIT game had the greatest comeback in NCAA history. He completely dismisses Illinois’ comeback over Arizona in the regional finals in 2005 because - get this - it took overtime. Whatever. I especially love the comment portion, which gives about a half-dozen or so way better comebacks, including this one, the Miracle Minute by Jay Williams that should cause all serious Bulls fans to eat sandpaper. Note: The UMass game was actually really entertaining. Syracuse’s utter refusal to run set plays, try to slow the game down or play some semblance of defense the entire second half was particularly impressive. Fun to watch, though.

Warning: PG-13 rating here. Look what Bruce Pearl is up to. Nice job again in the NCAAs, Bruce. Really. Good job.

I don’t care; I’m buying the book. I know, I know. But I’m still buying it.