Per usual with a Jerry Angelo draft, there were a couple of mild reaches (none on the level of last year’s second-round selection of Dan Bazuin), but on the whole, it appears the team filled the most pressing needs in the early rounds, chose who they felt were the best players available in the middle rounds and then patched some other holes with their seventh-round picks.

Let’s take a look at the first few draft picks. We’ll take a look at the later rounds in an upcoming post.

Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - A high-character guy with speed and a high level of talent, Williams fits snug with the (post-Tank Johnson) Angelo-Smith era. As has been well-publicized, this pick allows John Tait to move to right tackle and allows John St. Clair to move back into a reserve role at guard and tackle, a role that better suits him than starting right tackle. It would be naive to say that all the woes of the offensive line are solved by one draft pick. However, Tait is an average-at-best left tackle but an above-average right tackle. Olin Kreutz is a Pro Bowl center, Roberto Garza is an underrated guard. This becomes a make-or-break year for Terrence Metcalf, but then again, we’ve been saying that for four years and he’s still around, so the Bears must believe in him. Point being, the line isn’t so terrible anymore, even with just this one upgrade.

We’ll take a look at where the “experts” ranked the picks heading in. Here’s how they had Williams.

The Sporting News (2nd among offensive tackles); Rivals.com (3rd); Pro Football Weekly (5th); Draftdog.com (3rd). Average = 3rd. Williams was the third tackle picked, fitting the consensus. Personally, I admit I was rooting for Rashard Mendenhall here, with hopes of getting Sam Baker or Duane Brown in the second round. However, both of them were taken in the first round; the Bears would have been forced to choose among tackles who are probably not ready to start in the NFL just yet. In the end, therefore, they got the pick just right.

Grade = A.

Second round

Matt Forte, RB, Tulane. By most accounts, this was a bit of a reach. However, there was a very real possibility that Forte would have been gone by the Bears’ next pick at No. 70, so it wasn’t a huge reach. Forte is a Ced Benson-style of back, which is causing some fans to become worried, but as long as Forte enters with enthusiasm and a strong work ethic, he’ll already have two things Benson is generally regarded as lacking.

TSN (12th), Rivals (10th), PFW (6th), DD (9th). Average = 9th. He was the fifth back taken. I take more stock in PFW than the other publications here, so the pick doesn’t seen so bad, but once Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson went back-to-back-to-back late in the first round, I’d just have soon passed on an RB until round 3, with a possible exception made for Ray Rice.

Grade = C+.

Third round

Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt. Not a flashy pick here, which is what then-available Mario Manningham would have been. Still, at No. 70 Bennett went about where the consensus of draft experts say he should have. He’s productive if not spectacular, sort of like, how one colleague of mine put it, Bernard Berrian was coming out of college.

TSN (13th), Rivals (8th), PFW (13th), DD (9th). Average = 11th. Bennett was the 11th WR taken, further proof that this pick was right on with the consensus. Doofuses like me like flashier picks, but in the end, this is a solid third-round pick.

Grade = B.

Marcus Harrison, DT, Arkansas. This certainly smells like a BPA pick (best player available). Harrison is a big, mean, nasty defensive tackle that was No. 40 on the player rankings by Rivals.com. Taken at No. 90, then, is a steal. The downside to this pick is that Harrison has some character issues, including an arrest for marijuana found in his car. Unlike Manningham, however, Harrison was forthright about the issue in interviews for the draft. The Bears tend to be a team that give second chances if a player seems sincere and is vouched for by teammates/coaches (which, remember, Tank was). Harrison, in the third round, is a moderate gamble.

TSN (5th), Rivals (5th), PFW (5th), DD (8th). Average = 6th. Harrison was the seventh defensive tackle taken, another signal that this is a steal. The off-the-field issues are still a concern, but it’s better to gamble on the No. 90 pick than the No. 14 pick.

Grade = A.

Now, keep in mind that these grades aren’t necessarily based on the talent level of the players. They’re simply given in comparison to the consensus among the experts, which has its place, because even if you love a guy and want to take him in the second round, why do that if you know he’ll still be around in the fourth round? That’s why the Bazuin pick last year drove people mad; it’s not that they hated Dan Bazuin; they just hated him as a second-round pick. (That’s the same reason why in fantasy baseball drafts this year, you waited until the third round to pick Nick Markakis, even though he’ll probably produce at a first-round level. Why waste a first-round pick on him when you can take him two rounds later? But now I’m comparing the NFL Draft to a fantasy league, so I’ve completely lost my mind) Anyway, this year the Bears seemed to have a better feel for when guys were going to get drafted.

Overall grade for first three rounds = B.

This year, as far as the Bears are concerned, everybody is saying the team will take an offensive lineman in the first round. This certainly makes sense, being as how the current offensive line is old and this is perhaps the deepest O-line draft in recent memory. There is, however, a strong drop off after the top five guys (Jake Long, who is already taken, Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Branden Albert and Jeff Otah) so if there is a run on those guys before Chicago’s pick at No. 14, I wouldn’t mind seeing them take a running back like Rashard Mendenhall or wide receiver like Malcolm Kelly. I really don’t see five teams in the current top 13 going O-line, but if another team like the 49ers or Eagles decide to trade up, then all five of those guys could be gone by No. 14.

I also have concerns that Jeff Otah may be too sloppy and won’t work hard enough to survive in the NFL. Maybe I’m just a worrier. Or maybe I just have visions of Marc Colombo’s dislocated kneecap running through my head.

If the top five linemen are all gone, I actually wouldn’t mind — and I can’t believe I’m saying this — seeing the team trade (gulp) down in the draft (again) to pick up a second-tier lineman like Duane Brown and obtain (an) additional pick(s).

If they don’t get a good lineman, there could be some problems this season. I already have concerns this team will struggle to win more than six games, which may seem pessimistic but think of it this way: The team is way below average at all the skill positions offensively - with the exception of tight end - and the offensive line is really, really old. That’s not an encouraging combination. Defensively, the team has three key cogs - Mike Brown, Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris. All have question marks. Guys like Lance Briggs, Nathan Vashar, Peanut Tillman, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye are all great, but if either Brown, Urlacher or Harris are out, the run defense suffers and suddenly the team is vulnerable. Considering Brown is always hurt, Urlacher has neck and back problems and Harris can’t keep his hamstring connected to his leg, this is also not an encouraging sign.

I really feel this is the most important draft they Bears have had since coming to Bourbonnais. Last year, they went in just needing to add depth and they ended up reaching for Dan Bazuin, reaching for Garrett Wolfe and reaching for Michael Okwo. All those reaches wound up, thus far, as either busts or serious questions marks. They did get good value from seventh-round pick Trumaine McBride, but he was the exception to last year’s draft, not the rule. This year, they can’t afford to reach; there are too many holes.

Anyway, I was going to run a mock draft, but instead I’ll to the Sporting News’ mock, since they know a lot more than me.

—

In other news, the Cubs have caught fire recently, winning five straight games by a combined score of 44-11. They’ve won the last four games by at least six runs. I went to baseball-reference.com, looking through old results to find the last time the Cubs had won four-straight games by six or more runs; I stopped when I got all the way back to 1984 and couldn’t find any. I did find a streak in April of 2003 when they won five games in a row by five or more runs, including a 6-1 win in extra innings at Pittsburgh that saw them score five in the top of the 10th.

The run has been remarkable and I’m simply going to enjoy it while it lasts.

Let’s face it; the Brewers simply hit the ball too well to be an afterthought, even if Ryan Braun does look like a more-athletic-but-just-as-woeful version of Adam Dunn out there in left.

Plus, that Reds pitching staff - and I’d never thought I’d say this - looks good. Edison (or is it Edinson; seriously, what is it; Edison or Edinson? Edinson? It’s Edinson? OK; Edinson) Volquez looked good last night and, teamed with Johnny Cuerto Cueto and (eventually) Homer Bailey, the Reds are suddenly scary. By the way, I’m still trying to figure out how the Rangers screwed up what was supposed to be the untouchable DVD staff of John Danks, Edi(n)son Volquez and Thomas Diamond, but whatever.

And the Cardinals? Well, what can you say. They got six shutout innings out of Brad Thompson. Seriously, I’m about to give up. Being a Cardinals fan must be like living in a fantasy land, where it rains Skittles, there are no lemon Starbursts, the cap for every 21-oz. pop you buy has a “buy-one-get-one-free” prize in it, all weekends are at least 3-days long and managers can pass out dead drunk at red lights and nobody cares. Man, I hate the Cardinals. (Side note: a recent poll during a Cubs telecast showed that Cubs fans think the Brewers are our biggest rivals now … B.S. … I don’t hate the Brewers. How can you hate the Brewers? They haven’t won diddly. Now the Cardinals on the other hand …)
Now, some thoughts on the Cubs’ opening week.

• Kosuke Fukudome. Two times, he’s stepped up the bat with 40,000 people chanting his name. The first time, he hit a game-tying 3-run homer on Opening Day. The second time, he hit a two-run double to score the go-ahead and eventual game-winning runs. So yeah, he’ll be a fan favorite for some time now.
• Whether you agree or disagree with Kerry Wood being made the closer, there’s no denying the buzz in the stadium when he enters the game. It’s real. He’s only made three saves so far, but already, I feel much more comfortable about things when he enters than I ever did with any closer we’ve had since one Randall Kirk Myers. (Think about it; Myers begot Turk Wendell, which begot the Terry Adams-Mel Rojas debacle, which gave birth to the Rod Beck Year, also known as “The Give Rob Laird’s Mother Seven Different Kinds of Heart Disease Year.” After that, it went back to Terry Adams for some strange reason, then *shutters* Rick Aguilera to Tom Gordon to Antonio Alfonseca to Joe Borowski to LaTroy Hawkins. Dempster restored order and actually converted something like 85 percent of his save chances over his three years, but, just like with Beck, it never felt comfortable.) It’s a small sample size, but I like Kerry Wood’s performance as closer so far. Note: I was going to link to a few stat pages of those closers, but really, you don’t want to see it. Trust me.
• Six games in, and I’m already completely tired of hearing about the 100-year thing. Even Rick Gano, an all-around good guy and tireless worker over at the AP, has resorted to referring to it in his write-ups. But I kind of expected that from the MSM. However, I didn’t expect to be blindsided by former long-suffering fans. The sophomoric clowns at Boston’s barstoolsports.com, in a bizarre “hey don’t forget you were like us four years ago” twist, are now calling Cubs fans “self-pitying, misery-wallowing buffoons who think going 100 years without a championship is some kind of a badge of honor.” Let’s get this straight, dude. We don’t think it’s cute. We don’t think it’s a badge of honor. We want to win just as badly as you do. Stop acting like a pretentious boob. Save that for the Yankees fans and Cardinals fans. Root for your team and we’ll root for ours. Other than that, shut up.

Glad that’s off my chest. Anyway, one week down, 25 to go.

Here are my “High Fidelity”-esque Top Five horrid fears about this year’s Cubs team.

1. Derrek Lee is old. He’s not the lockdown fielder he once was. He doesn’t run the bases as well as he used to. He looks like he’s in pain after every swing. He hit 16 homers after the All-Star break last year, but there’s no doubting his power has dropped since his wrist injury. I’m scared, folks. I’m scared he’s turning into Fred McGriff, circa 2002.

2. The bullpen is going to be worse. Sure, the ‘pen had its violent ups and downs last year, but overall, it was one of the best in baseball. Michael Wuertz and Carlos Marmol were among the best in the league in stranding inherited runners, Bob Howry was a serviceable if not dependable set-up man and God bless him, Ryan Dempster saved over 90 percent of his opportunities (28 of 31). Closers that save 90 percent of their chances don’t grow on trees. The bullpen is going to be worse this year not because the pitchers are any worse, but because it’s going to be hard for the pen to match last year’s accomplishments.

3. The Ryan Theriot-Mark DeRosa double-play combo is really, really bad. Cubs fans love these guys because “they hustle” and have good “work ethic” and “do all the little things” as if Derrek Lee loafs, Alfonso Soriano doesn’t try hard and Aramis Ramirez can’t play defense. All of the Cubs hustle (with the exception of Ramirez when his hamstring’s tender, which is always), all of them have good work ethic and, for the most part, they’re all willing to do the little things. Giving Theriot and DeRosa credit for these things is a polite way of pointing out that they’re not that talented. Most teams need to be strong up the middle to succeed. If the Cubs succeed, it will be despite the fact they were below average up the middle. (Don’t believe me? Look where Prospectus ranks them, or doesn’t rank them, in their player forecast manager. And that doesn’t take into consideration the below-average defense the duo will give.)

4. Jason Marquis. Are we really going through this again? Hasn’t Sean Marshall proven himself? Can’t we get like a can of tuna or something in a trade for Marquis?

5. It’s the Cubs. They’ll screw it up somehow.

I admit, these are all irrational, mostly baseless fears. I don’t care. I still fear the worst.
—

One year ago at this time, I was at the hospital pacing nervously back and forth during the birth of my son.

It wasn’t necessarily because of the delivery - this was kid No. 3; it was old hat - but because it was Opening Day and the stupid Cubs were getting blanked by Aaron Harang while Adam Dunn was literally taking laps around Carlos Zambrano after putting two bombs somewhere into Lake Erie.

Stupid Cubs.

They ended up sending us on wild, memorable ride last year which saw me not only give up on them, but actually strike from them for two weeks before they improbably charged to the divisional title and predictably floundered to the Baby Backs in the playoffs.

I entered last year with no expectations. This year, however, I actually enter more excited than I’ve been since 2004. Only what I was feeling entering the 2004 season wasn’t really excitement. I sort of felt entitled that year. We were going to win it that year because, dang it, we deserved to after Games 6 and 7. It was ours to lose. I remember saying “Prior-Wood-Zambrano-Clement-Maddux” to myself over and over again that whole year, convinced the pitching staff would eventually all come together and start mowing people down.

Sigh.

Perhaps it’s because of the horror show that was 2004 that I’m channeling my quasi-excitement into full-fledged fear. After all, excuse me for not being giddy about “Zambrano-Lilly-Marquis-Hill-Dempster.”

Sigh.

Let’s just not screw this up.

—

And now some links.

I have no inside sources and am basing this in no way on facts, but let’s get one thing straight here, people. The Bears are NOT trying to draft Darren McFadden. If Vegas had odds on things like “Bears trade their first-round draft pick for a lower first-round pick and another pick,” I’d place a bet on it. So why was Lovie having dinner with McFadden? I don’t have a clue. But there’s no way they’re drafting him in a million years. Brad Biggs of the Sun-Times thinks they have some serious interest in Felix Jones. That seems like a much more likely scenario.

Some idiot is claiming some pointless NIT game had the greatest comeback in NCAA history. He completely dismisses Illinois’ comeback over Arizona in the regional finals in 2005 because - get this - it took overtime. Whatever. I especially love the comment portion, which gives about a half-dozen or so way better comebacks, including this one, the Miracle Minute by Jay Williams that should cause all serious Bulls fans to eat sandpaper. Note: The UMass game was actually really entertaining. Syracuse’s utter refusal to run set plays, try to slow the game down or play some semblance of defense the entire second half was particularly impressive. Fun to watch, though.

Warning: PG-13 rating here. Look what Bruce Pearl is up to. Nice job again in the NCAAs, Bruce. Really. Good job.

I don’t care; I’m buying the book. I know, I know. But I’m still buying it.

If they get in, ESPN’s Laurence Holmes from WSCR-AM 670 wants them to be sent to a play-in game with Howard. Would you really do that to a team that’s one of the top 40 teams in the nation, Laurence?

That’s right, folks. People far, far smarter than me say that Illinois is the No. 37 team in the country. Over at basketball prospectus, the same folks who brought you the brilliant Rob Laird-bookmarked baseball prospectus also bring you one for college basketball.

Using their weird equation that I’m not going to even try to explain, Illinois is not only the unluckiest team in the nation (by a wide margin), they are the 37th-best following Friday’s upset over Purdue, which wasn’t that big of an upset if you consider Purdue is ranked just 12 spots higher at 25th by the same system.

FYI, before you think this website is crazy, they were all over George Mason in 2006 and VCU last year. This year, it likes New Mexico, although that team’s in danger of not even making the tournament this year. It looks like the big schools are the teams to choose in brackets this year.

There’s been a core group of friends (degenerate gamblers, or whatever you want to call them), who have made yearly trips out to Las Vegas for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.  We go out, we gamble, we get absolutely rocked for free, and we come home with a sense of….calm.  And maybe a little lighter in the wallet. 

Then last year, as I was getting married to my lovely, lovely wife, we decided to save money.  We decided not to go to Vegas.

Big mistake.  BIG, big mistake.  On St. Patrick’s Day last year, the first day of the second round, our core group of myself and two close friends Mark and Amber, we looked at each other and said never again.  This could not, absolutely not happen again.  We had a great setup at Joe’s on Weed St. here in Chicago, and we got hooked up with a lot of freebies after spending essentially three full days there.  But as Mark and I were abosolutely cleaning up against the spread (through 48 games, I went 34-14, and Mark went 31-17), we decided that there was way, WAY too much money to be made.

This year will be a little bit different, as my lovely wife (also named Amber) will also be making the sojourn with us, and quite possibly (but hopefully not) sucking quite a bit of the fun out of the whole expedition.  But maybe not…..

Last year, my wife and I spent the Super Bowl in Vegas for free, and got to attend a huge Super Bowl party with free found and drinks during the game.  And it was her idea to make some bets right before the game.  And it was HER idea to put a bet on Devin Hester returning a kick for a touchdown in the game…and to bet enough that we would basically pay for the airline tickets, the only thing we had to pay for to get out there. 

12 seconds into the game, I had no voice, we paid for the trip and I loved that woman just a liiiiittle bit more. 

Will this March be any different?  I don’t know.  And maybe, that’s really the great thing about Las Vegas: Even as it gets more corporate, you really never know what’s going to happen.

Maybe you’ll almost knock Doyle Brunson over because you’re not paying attention (that was me).  Maybe you’ll have a little too much to drink and, at the prompting of your friends, proposition a married, older woman (Mark).  Or maybe on St. Patrick’s Day you’ll have a little too much to drink, fall off the bed and get stuck (the Amber that’s not my wife).  Or maybe you’ll make that really great bet.  Who knows?

And that’s the joy Vegas, baby.

My answer is always one of three five things.

• “You don’t need that.”
• “You already have that.”
• “We can’t afford that.”
• “Not a chance.”
• “Maybe Santa will bring it for Christmas.”

I get the feeling the winter GM meetings in baseball are little like that. You get the team brass together in a hotel room or wherever they stay, and they talk about all the things they want for the upcoming year while the GM provides answers pretty much similar to the ones I give my kids whenever they see a commercial for Little Princess’ Bake & Fun Kitchen or whatever.

In that spirit, let’s take a look at some of the sports-related things that I would like to receive for Christmas.

• A brand-new Cubs’ Fukudome jersey. Of course, for this to happen the Cubs need to sign him. Answer: Somewhere between “Maybe Santa will bring it for Christmas” and “We can’t afford it.”
• An 2007 Rose Bowl Champions Fighting Illini T-shirt. Answer: I hate to admit it, but it’s probably “Not a chance.”
• A Devin Hester 2007 Highlight package. Answer: “You already have that.”
• A “No Yankees, Red Sox, Patriots or Barry Bonds Day” gift certificate from ESPN. Answer: “Not a chance.”

I’m sure there are other things. What do you think?

Kirk Herbstreit and Brent “Mushmouth” Musberger seem to disagree (unless Illinois goes to the Sugar Bowl — EEK bad memories bad memories), but things are shaping up for my alma mater, Illinois, to be a BCS team.

Read that last sentence one more time.

Illinois could be a BCS bowl team.

We’re less than 24 hours away from that distinct possibility. It looks like Illinois will pass both Tennessee and BC (who lost today), with OU, Arizona State, Va Tech and LSU recording victories. Of those teams, it would seem the only one Illinois could have passed MIGHT have been Oklahoma. So really, that’s a moot point.

Which leaves questions of how things work … there’s the order the bowls pick in, but something I know I had forgotten about is that if your BCS bowl’s representative gets stolen, you immediately get the first pick to replace them.

So it would certainly appear that, with tOSU headed back to the title game, the Rose Bowl will get the first pick (which isn’t good for Illinois). That’s when things get dicey…

Who else goes to the title game?? Is it Georgia, who couldn’t even make the SEC title game? Is it Va. Tech? Is it LSU? Is it Brent Musberger’s ridiculous selection, Hawai’i? I honestly don’t know, and it’s the whim of the voters to decide, but this is how I would slate it:

National Title game — Ohio St. vs. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl — West Virginia vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl — USC vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl — Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl — Illinois vs. Hawai’i (a game that roughly 5 people travel to see).

The reason that is, is because, with the exception of bowls who get their natural representative picked out, in this case the Orange and the Rose, the Sugar Bowl picks dead last. The Orange, which automatically gets WVU, would probably take the BCS #3 team, likely to be Georgia. That gives the Rose the next pick (after OSU goes to the title game), and who are they going to pick, a team like LSU or Illinois to keep the Big Ten/Pac-10 rivalry alive? (if you don’t know the answer to that question, really, just stop reading and turn the computer off). Fiesta seems to love Kansas, and they don’t seem to mind that they would play OU, so that seems totally likely.

The question becomes the Sugar Bowl, and who they pick. They have to have Hawai’i, who would be the consensus last pick. The question becomes, who is the other team? It comes down to Arizona St and Illinois. The one thing going in Illinois’ favor is that they travelled EXTREMELY well to New Orleans in 2002, and Arizona St. is a notoriously bad travelling team.

Maybe I’m looking at things through Rose (or Sugar?) colored glasses, but I think this seems highly likely.

• RF Fukudome ($15)
• LF Soriano ($12)
• CF Crawford ($4.2)
• 3B Ramirez ($15)
• 1B Lee ($13.3)
• C Soto (400K)
• SS Matsui ($4)
• 2B DeRosa ($2.75)

• OFs - Murton, Pagan (415K)
• IFs - Cedeno (400K), Infante ($1.3), Theriot (400K)
• C - Blanco ($1.8)

• SP: Zambrano ($16), Lilly ($9), Marshall (400K), Dempster (5.3), Guzman/Prior/Gallagher/O’Malley/me (400K)
• Closer: Bob Howry ($4.5)
• RP (RHP): Wuertz (415K), Cherry/Hart/Gallagher/Guzman (two, 400K each)
• RP (LHP): Eyre ($3.8), Ohman/Rapada/Cotts/Pignatiello (one, 750K average)

(Eaten contract: Jason Marquis ($7))
(Total salary: about $120-125 million)

Final thought: The Cubs lose a bit in the way of pitching in this scenario, as that rotation looks very mediocre after Zambrano-Lilly and if an injury were to arise … ewww, but isn’t that a SCARY good lineup? I also think that lineup would make the Cubs possibly the best defensive team in the National League not including Colorado.

What do you think?

Then, after another crazy week of college football that saw yet another No. 2 lose, I read this. Suddenly, the team everyone in the blogosphere loves to mock for whatever reasons (Exhibits A, B and C … note: mild language warning on these links) is the hot team people are picking to sneak in this suddenly wide open chase for BCS berths.

Now certainly, with the parity of college football this year, the BCS is a little desperate, and will probably lower their standards faster than the Army has. It’s sort of like when a senior girl, who was on the homecoming court as a junior, asks you to the prom, only she’s let herself go, made a few bad choices and is now pretty much asking anyone who will take her. That’s the BCS right now — the desperate, former it-girl who is now slumming it because she has no choice. But hey, it’s still the BCS and if you don’t think I’m rooting for things to fall Illinois’ way, you’re wrong.

After all, I never went to prom.